When Can You Retire?

Project Your Growth

Use the calculator to see when your investments will reach your retirement target:

The 4% Rule

The 4% rule comes from a 1994 study by financial planner William Bengen, confirmed by the "Trinity Study." It found that a retiree who withdraws 4% of their portfolio in year one, then adjusts for inflation annually, has a very high probability of not running out of money over 30 years.

Your retirement number = Annual expenses × 25

What Counts as "Annual Expenses"?

Use your actual spending, adjusted for how retirement will differ:

• Subtract work-related costs (commuting, work clothes, lunches out)
• Add leisure costs (travel, hobbies you'll have more time for)
• Add healthcare costs (Medicare doesn't cover everything)
• Subtract Social Security income (reduces how much your portfolio must cover)

The Timeline Calculator

How long until you reach your retirement number depends on:

• Your current portfolio balance
• Your monthly investment amount
• Your expected return
• Your target (25× expenses)

The calculator at the top of this page lets you model this directly. A few benchmarks:

Starting at $0, investing $1,000/month at 7% return:

• 20 years → ~$521,000
• 25 years → ~$812,000
• 30 years → ~$1,219,000

Starting at $0, investing $2,000/month at 7% return:

• 20 years → ~$1,041,000
• 25 years → ~$1,625,000
• 30 years → ~$2,437,000

The difference between $1,000 and $2,000/month isn't just 2× the money — it also cuts years off your timeline because you reach your number sooner.

Levers That Move Your Retirement Date

1. Reduce expenses in retirement

The most powerful lever. Going from $70,000/year in expenses to $55,000/year reduces your retirement target by $375,000 (from $1.75M to $1.375M) — shaving years off your timeline.

2. Increase savings rate

Each percentage point increase in your savings rate moves your retirement date closer by more than you'd expect because you're simultaneously reducing expenses (less to save for) and growing your portfolio faster.

3. Increase return

Not fully in your control, but asset allocation matters. At 5% average return, the timeline is significantly longer than at 7%. Keeping fees low and maintaining appropriate stock allocation for your timeline is within your control.

4. Social Security

Social Security provides meaningful income in retirement. If you expect $1,500/month ($18,000/year) in Social Security, your portfolio only needs to cover $32,000/year instead of $50,000 — a target of $800,000 instead of $1,250,000.

Safe Withdrawal Rate Variants

The 4% rule is a guideline, not a guarantee. For more conservative approaches:

For early retirement (retiring in your 40s or 50s with a 40-50 year horizon), 3-3.5% is generally recommended.

The Role of Part-Time Work

Many retirees work part-time — not because they need to, but because they want to. Even $1,000-$2,000/month in part-time income dramatically reduces portfolio stress and extends how long your savings lasts.

This is sometimes called "barista FIRE" — reaching a lower savings target and covering small gaps with flexible part-time work.

FAQ

Does the 4% rule still work?

Current research suggests 3.3-3.5% may be a more conservative target given current bond yields and valuations. Most financial planners still use 4% as a reasonable guideline for 30-year retirements. For longer retirements, lean toward 3.5%.

What about inflation?

The 4% rule accounts for inflation — you increase your withdrawal amount by the inflation rate each year. Your portfolio's investment returns should also outpace inflation over long periods.

I'm 50 with barely anything saved. Is it too late?

No — but you may need to work longer than 65, save more aggressively now, or plan for a more modest retirement. Even starting serious investing at 50 builds meaningful wealth by 65. Run the calculator with your real numbers.